Modelling is part of the analytical toolkit that policy makers use. We estimate what are the consequences of policy A and plan B.
If we use modelling or draw on the results of modelling, we know that all modelling is not equal.
So the question arises, what should we keep a lookout for? What tells us that modelling is commissioned in good faith and skilfully carried out?
According to the Business Council of Australia, we should ask ourselves a number of questions to determine whether or not an analysis is worth the effort of reading:
When? Before a public commitment has been made; updated as the project evolves
Why? To determine the best investment option, recognising that it might not be the status quo; to help inform evidence based policy
How? Using forecasts based on comparable projects where possible; using assumptions on economic and population growth; using transparent process to develop cost and benefits; using sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty
Whom? Undertaken by objective third party
What else? Made available for public scrutiny; effort is proportional to the potential size and extent of the investment
And we should be careful if questions elicit these kinds of responses:
When? After a public commitment has been made and a preferred option identified
Why? To tick the box
How? Using forecasts that reflect the bias of the project planner or promoter
Whom? Undertaken by the promoter
What else? Not made publicly available; insufficient analysis compared to the investment/potential impacts
Want to know more? Contact us at service@ethoscrs.com.au.